The contract for the Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery (TEFER), Flood Forecasting Model Development project was signed between the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) and DHI Water and Environment, Denmark on 30th November 2001. Subconsultants to DHI for the project are einfalt & hydrotec GbR, Germany, and from Turkey Arti Proje Ltd and UBM United International Consultants Inc.

DSI has selected four pilot catchments for the establishment of the forecasting system: West Black Sea, Susurluk, Gediz and Buyuk Menderes, with catchment areas ranging from 18,000 to 30,000km2
 

Flood Forecasting System

The Flood Forecasting System developed under this TEFER component takes real time monitoring data of the catchment status and produces forecasts of the flood state of the catchment. The forecasting process is automated, with the possibility for manual inspection and intervention. Below figure shows an overview of the Flood Forecasting Model System.
 

The flood forecasting system takes real time monitoring data of the regional meteorology and the catchment status, and produces forecasts of the flood state of the catchment. The forecasting system is based on FLOOD WATCH and SCOUT. FLOOD WATCH is a GIS based decision support system for flood management, with MIKE 11 at its core. SCOUT integrates real time numerical weather prediction, radar and raingauge data to produce rainfall forecasts. The system combines the compilation of real time data with rainfall and flood forecasting and presentations of the information and results. 

Forecasting Operations

The TEFER Flood Forecasting Model has an interface to the telemetry system through the DSI central data server. This server is the ground station of the VSAT system at DSI. In addition to the computers and the VSAT ground station, a meteorological workstation from the TEFER Radar project will be included in the LAN of the flood forecasting centre.

A diagram of the data flow is shown in figure below. The overall data communication context is as follows:

. measured hydrometric field data are delivered either via VSAT (satellite communication) or via GSM/modem connection to DSI

. AWOS (Automated Weather Station) data are provided by DMI (State Meteorology Organization) via a dedicated data line to DSI

. the arriving hydrometric and AWOS data are transformed from their original formats to the format specified for the Flood Forecasting Model

. radar and NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) data are provided by DMI via a dedicated data line to DSI


FLOOD WATCH and SCOUT forecasting system works on a network of standard pc's with Windows 2000 operating system. Servers audit data flow and forecasting processes. The automation of flood forecasting system, enables the right priority of the processes free from complexities. The forecasts are evaluated by servers assigned for each basin for every hour. The results are uploaded to relevant web pages. This modular system can be easly expanded with additional servers. 

SCOUT 

The SCOUT module produces rainfall forecasts in real time from an integration of the radar data, the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data, and the point raingauge data from the real time networks of DSI and DMI. The raw data are preprocessed, including quality control. The forecasts are transferred in real time to FLOOD WATCH as time series for each model sub-catchment.

SCOUT carries out the following functions:

. Import of radar and raingauge data

. Quality control and adjustment of data

. Forecasts computed from the integration of   catchment topography and NWP data

. Presentation of measured radar images, individual and composite, raingauge data and rainfall forecasts

. E-mail reports of system performance


FLOOD WATCH 

The flood forecasting and warning system is set up within FLOOD WATCH, a decision support system for flood management, developed by DHI Water and Environment.  FLOOD WATCH combines the compilation of real time data with rainfall and flood forecasting and presentations of the information and results.  FLOOD WATCH has a customised ArcView graphical user interface and includes the following facilities, with “push button” operations:

. Real time data management with preprocessing and quality controls

. An automatic interface with the real time rainfall and water level data provided by the hydrometric network

. An automatic interface with precipitation fields predicted and measured

. Operation of the flood forecasting system

. Graphical and tabular presentation of the monitored data and the flood forecasts, with direct broadcast to the Internet

. Preparation of flood warnings, in textual, tabular, graphical and map based formats, with direct broadcast to the Internet

FLOOD WATCH operates within the environment of a Geographic Information System, and has an automatic interface with the data in the hydrometeorologic and hydrometric network database.  All the thematic maps and information from GIS are available within FLOOD WATCH.  The setup of the FLOOD WATCH time series database is prepared from the thematic maps with the locations of the stations in the real time network.

At the core of the FLOOD WATCH system is MIKE 11.  MIKE 11 incorporates hydrologic and hydraulic modelling and is set up for the catchment area and the river network.  MIKE 11 has a unique self-correcting updating procedure, automatically minimising deviations between the real time observed and simulated discharges and water levels.  Updating is transparent to the user and by compensating for errors and uncertainties, particularly in the rainfall forecasts, greatly enhances the accuracy of the forecasts.